Which Reality Show Will Last More Than One Season?
By Chris Smith, Vice President, Consensus Point

The Situation: A cable network had ideas for 13 new reality TV shows and required a methodology to quickly screen each one and find the 2 or 3 that might justify investing in another round of research.

The Design: Each reality TV show idea had just a title and a two-sentence description like this example (which was not part of the study)

Who Has the BIG Idea? The biggest TV producer personalities either reject or fight over ideas being pitched from people from all over the country who think they have the next big television hit. The panel of TV producers then competes over who can offer the most lucrative and life changing deal in hopes of turning people’s ideas into a success in the competitive world of reality TV.

A single question was asked for each of the 13 ideas:
“If a TV show with this description was introduced on X Network, would it be so popular with people who enjoy reality TV that it would be renewed for a second season?”

In a Prediction Market, participants are truly engaged in the outcomes. They have 100 tokens to “bet” on the ideas they believe have the best chance of renewal. The more confident they are, the more tokens they bet.

The Results: The Prediction Market delivered exceptional differentiation across each of the shows. The clear winner was Show W, having the highest probability of renewal, the highest likelihood to attract the 18-34 and 35-49 demos, the highest likelihood to attract white audience and second highest AA audience, and the highest likelihood to attract non-viewers of the network to the show. The winning show is now on TV!

Timing: Fielding took one day and delivery of top-line results were delivered the following day (2 days from “go” to results!) and a full report 2 days later. Sound interesting and want to learn more? Let’s talk. Chris@consensuspoint.com