Just before the Labor Day weekend, business and academia came together for a roundtable at the University of Miami School of Business Administration, “featuring presentations that highlighted various approaches to the discipline of risk management.” We were delighted to read about a roundtable of this sort bridging business and academics because we think such collaborative efforts are important, but we also have an important solution to a number of risk management problems. So we were especially delighted that after a clear statement of problems of risk, an especially incisive member of the faculty introduced the concept of prediction markets to the group.

Here are Brian Rice and Henry Pujol, a pair of executives from Royal Caribbean Cruises, explaining the risk scenario:

Brian Rice, executive vice president and CFO of Royal Caribbean Cruises and a member of the School’s Board of Overseers, spearheaded iniatives to develop the roundtable and kicked it off by explaining the importance of risk management in today’s business culture. He pointed to the familiar crises Toyota and BP faced this year, and stressed how corporations are charged with preparing for the inevitable.

“Risk is a big part of our culture. It’s something we’re very focused on at Royal Caribbean,” Rice said. Henry Pujol, the company’s principal accounting officer and a member of the School’s Accounting Advisory Board, explained the cruise line’s top-down approach to risk management in the first presentation. Royal Caribbean has moved from a once-a-year risk management process to an around-the-clock audit.

“Some risks are easy to identify, like the price of fuel,” Pujol said. “Others are more difficult to recognize. The biggest challenge is the unknown. We’ve learned that we may not be able to prevent every risk, but we can react so there is not a panic moment. We prepare ourselves for the unexpected using what-if scenarios.”

And here’s David Kelly, an associate professor of economics, on the value of prediction markets:

“Prediction markets give us a very low-cost way to measure risk precisely and continuously,” Kelly said. “In most cases, it’s more accurate than expert opinions and surveys.”

We’ve already helped customers experience profound success managing risk in the enterprise, and we invite you to explore examples of our customer success.

Maybe, in addition to our world-renowned Chief Scientist Robin Hanson, we need to add a Chief Economist…

We just wrote about the innovator’s dilemma. As if rolling out the strategic business case for our Foresight platform, the Wall Street Journal followed their excerpt from the latest edition of their management guide—“The End of Management”—with a piece on leveraging employee innovation. In large organizations, employees are a crowd with considerable wisdom. And Foresight offers executives a sophisticated tool for innovation management.

J.C. Spender and Bruce Strong suggest “innovation communities” as a solution to harvesting employee innovation. Implementations of Foresight involve participants—often employees—in a market process that functions as an innovation community.

Dr. Spender and Mr. Strong’s ideal innovation communities include seven key characteristics:

• Create the space to innovate.
• Get a broad variety of viewpoints.
• Create a conversation between senior management and participants.
• Participants should be pulled to join, not pushed.
• Tapping unused talent and energy keeps product-development costs low.
• Collateral benefits can be as important as the innovations themselves.
• Measurement is key.

If you’d like to see an example of such an innovation community among our many customer successes, take a look at what Motorola accomplished using Foresight. We’re further expanding this concept through our partnership with Brightidea and their WebStorm interface. If you’re ready to create an innovation community within your organization, so are we.

The 5th annual Global Intranet Strategies Survey just closed. Jane McConnell, its creator, gleaned some important insights even before it closed. To our eye, she saves the best for last: prediction markets appear to be emerging in the enterprise.

The trends Ms. McConnell identified are worth reprinting in their entirety:

• Mobile optimization is not happening very fast. There has been no evolution since last year’s survey: Only 7% say their intranet is optimized for mobile access, 24% are running pilots or are in the planning stages. This is identical to last year.
• Social media is advancing inside. It is implemented to some extent in 70 % of the organizations, up 10 % points from last year. Out of these, 20 % have had social media for less than one year, and over 25% have had it for 3 or more years.
• Enterprises are looking outwards…. 40% say “We create official, branded spaces on external networking platforms such as Facebook.” But most are still being cautious….and only 11% say “We encourage employees to blog on the internet.”
• Collaboration is now “self-service” for some. Out of 276 organizations with blogs, wikis and/or collaborative spaces, approximately 40% provide a self-service solution where people can do it themselves with no or minimal help desk support. However, from 45 to 55% say that only IT can open these spaces.
• Are prediction markets emerging? 10% of the participating organizations already have them. Another 7% are in the pilot or planning stages. Last year, the highest we had were 3% who were testing prediction markets.

Keep in mind, an intranet is the network that is built inside an organization, frequently for the purposes of communication, project management, sales process, etc. When we implement our Foresight platform, it is often in the context of an intranet.

The final insight about prediction markets tracks nicely with Gartner’s latest edition of their Hype Cycle for Social Software, in which prediction markets were clearly maturing. We’re anxiously awaiting the final results of the survey. In the meantime, isn’t it time your organization set up a pilot?

According to an adapted excerpt from the recently published The Wall Street Journal Essential Guide to Management, The Innovator’s Dilemma is an influential book among several major CEOs. For executives who are concerned that they’ll miss “disruptive innovations that opened up new customers and markets for lower-margin, blockbuster products,” we’ve got a solution: Foresight.

Adding a bit more context from Alan Murray’s piece:

Even the best-managed companies aren’t protected from this destructive clash between whirlwind change and corporate inertia. When I asked members of The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council, a group of chief executives who meet each year to deliberate on issues of public interest, to name the most influential business book they had read, many cited Clayton Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma.” That book documents how market-leading companies have missed game-changing transformations in industry after industry—computers (mainframes to PCs), telephony (landline to mobile), photography (film to digital), stock markets (floor to online)—not because of “bad” management, but because they followed the dictates of “good” management. They listened closely to their customers. They carefully studied market trends. They allocated capital to the innovations that promised the largest returns. And in the process, they missed disruptive innovations that opened up new customers and markets for lower-margin, blockbuster products.

Information is being generated at ever increasing speeds. Executives hoping to draw lessons from those profiled by Christensen would do well to realize that thought leadership is all around them. Our Foresight platform facilitates innovation management by extracting collective thought leadership from throughout (and, if the business case requires it, beyond) the corporation.

More Murray:

Information gathering also needs to be broader and more inclusive. Former Procter & Gamble CEO A.G. Lafley’s demand that the company cull product ideas from outside the company, rather than developing them all from within, was a step in this direction. (It even has a website for submitting ideas.) The new model will have to go further. New mechanisms will have to be created for harnessing the “wisdom of crowds.” Feedback loops will need to be built that allow products and services to constantly evolve in response to new information. Change, innovation, adaptability, all have to become orders of the day.

We have the “new mechanism.” For us, it’s not new. It’s a stable, mature platform in its sixth major release with several examples of customer success to show for it.

We’re working hard to ensure that executives are equipped and thereby empowered to solve enterprise problems in important domains:

• forecasting, where Foresight offers strong guidance capabilities
• brand identity and brand development
• innovative disruptions

Over the coming months, we’ll be exploring ways that today’s executives can demonstrate collective thought leadership. If you need a solution to the innovator’s dilemma, give us a call.

Gartner has released their Hype Cycle for Social Software, 2010 report. We agree that the interest and meaningful use of prediction markets are on the rise. In addition, Sherrilynne Starkie has an excellent summary of the identified trends.

She identifies two of our strengths in trends on the rise:

Idea Marketplaces: enable organisations to source innovative ideas, technologies, products and services by connecting them to innovators and solution providers from around the world.

Social Analytics: the process of measuring, analysing and interpreting the results of interactions between brands and consumers and/or businesses across digital channels in the context of specific goals and objectives.

Sliding into Gartner’s infamous Trough of Disillusionment, though, are prediction markets, sandwiched in between mobile social networks (aka Facebook) and unified communications (aka IP telephony and video conferencing):

Prediction Markets: are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Prediction markets are thus structured as betting exchanges, without any risk for the bookmaker.

We agree that prediction markets are maturing, and our customers continue to use our versatile platform to make better decisions earlier. We’re glad Gartner is conducting detailed analysis of this important enterprise software domain, and support the forward movement towards mainstream business use. We also know the importance of services and already offer them to our customers—something that Gartner projects does not happen until technologies reach the slope of enlightenment.

Fortunately, the versatility of our Foresight platform—which allows for idea management, social analytics, and decision markets—has us and our customers and partners optimistic about the future.

In addition to following James Surowiecki’s views on the ‘wisdom of crowds’, we also keep up with Ross Dawson–futurist, entrepreneur, and best-selling author. He spoke a few weeks ago at Creative Sydney’s Crowds + Collaboration event, sharing new perspectives.

You can find slides of his talk here, and there’s an elaboration of Dawson’s thinking on crowdsourcing at MyCustomer.com, from an interview after the Sydney event. He distills the state of the market of tools and platforms into six categories:

• Distributed innovation platforms
• Idea platforms
• Innovation prizes
• Content markets
• Prediction markets
• Competition platforms

You might have an idea which was our favorite:

Prediction markets bring together many opinions to predict the future, often based on “stockmarket-type” mechanisms, which provide a value of a particular prediction that you can buy or sell to make points or potentially money as a result of it going the way you correctly predict. One of the longstanding corporate users of this is Oracle. “For enterprise software companies it is notoriously difficult to forecast sales,” explains Dawson. “For many reasons, the sales pipeline that is put into CRM systems is often inaccurate. However, if you then ask the salespeople to predict what the sales are going to be for that quarter and you aggregate all of their opinions, you can get a far more accurate view of what the actual sales are going to be.”

Google is another user of prediction markets, using its employees to predict which of its innovations and new projects are most likely to be successful. “These are tools that actually aggregate many opinions through the classic ‘wisdom of the crowd’ in order to make more effective corporate decisions,” adds Dawson.

Futurists who understand the value of prediction markets must be onto something…

A few months ago, we posted on our Facebook page about our CEO Linda Rebrovick being honored by being named to CABLE’s 2010 Board Walk of Fame. We were pleasantly surprised to see Linda featured in comprehensive coverage [PDF] of the issue of women on corporate board’s in the July/August edition of Nashville Post.

Earlier this year, Nashville-based health care learning and research company HealthStream announced that Jim Daniell, one of its board members and one of the company’s earliest clients, would not stand for re-election to the board. At press time, HealthStream’s search to replace him was ongoing.

HealthStream has a female board director in Linda Rebrovick, a longtime IBM executive, KPMG partner and currently CEO of Consensus Point, an innovator in enterprise prediction market software serving the red-hot forecasting sector. Rebrovick’s connection to CABLE and other organizations positioned her well to help HealthStream’s board identify qualified female candidates—and she was only too happy to do so. With the new SEC regulations in place requiring that boards disclose efforts to nominate a diverse pool for open board seats, it was no doubt welcome information to the otherwise all male HealthStream board.

HealthStream CEO Bobby Frist expresses a strong desire to increase diversity on his board, in part by citing statistics that show a high correlation between board diversity and the performance of a company.

“We subscribe to that notion as a full board and as individual board members,” Frist says. “The candidate pool we’ve recently created exhibits a diversity of experience and background and thought.”

Frist says there have been “huge advances” in recent times in bringing qualified diverse candidates to the light, in no small part because of organizations like CABLE, ION and others that have ramped up efforts to organize resources in such a way that board searches can achieve greater diversity.

In part due to HealthStream’s success in its current search, Frist scoffs at the notion that there are not enough qualified diverse candidates to sit on boards.

“For me, that perspective also has a lot to do with what companies mean by being quali- fied, because you can be a student of business in many ways. You don’t have to have been involved in a big company. That, to me, doesn’t make you the best-qualified candidate. So there may be some problem in the way people are defining their qualifications that would open up the definition to more candidates if they thought of it slightly differently.”

While Frist agrees that the gears have moved “very slowly” in regard to corporate board diversification, he believes the overlay of increased SEC disclosure requirements, greater awareness and more education will result in a more rapid pace of change in the next three to five years than in the last few.

“With any major push like this, education comes first,” Frist says. “Change will follow.” That’s no guarantee that HealthStream will choose a diverse candidate in its current search. Nor should there be. “The key is to have a good and diverse candidate pool, and I’m confident we have achieved that,” Frist says. “But the number one priority is selecting the most qualified candidate from the broadest qualified pool. Think of it in those two ways, and I’m confident we’ll get the right person.”

There’s also a brief interview with Linda:

What can women do to improve the situation?

Women can make it known that they are interested. Much of it is just putting yourself in the candidate pool. Second, be sure that you have a development plan. Sit on a nonprofit board. A private company board. Work your way up. Attend a corporate board member event. Get a mentor, someone on a corporate board, to guide you through the type of development you need to become more prepared. Try to get in a position in your company where you are managing a P&L, because financial expertise is really important.

What can companies do?

Companies need to decide that diversity is a qualification that is a priority in their searches and then they need to tap into CABLE or ION [or other outlets] and identify candidates. Clearly, they’ll be very impressed if they take the initiative, make it a commitment and go find these resources.

Thanks to Nashville Post for covering this issue, and thanks to Linda for being a great leader!

Our CEO, Linda Rebrovick, recently sat down with Erin Lawley of the well-regarded NashvillePost.com for an interview. Erin summarized the function of our Foresight platform nicely but also got Linda talking about our important role in the Nashville technology corridor.

Erin on what we do:

Consensus Point companies — clients include General Electric, Best Buy and Qualcomm — can post a question to the online market, such as whether a particular project will be completed on time. Participants then can answer the question, betting a certain number of points on an outcome depending on their confidence level. Correct answers return more points, lead to higher standings on the market’s leader board and possibly other rewards or incentives for the participants while helping executives more effectively manage the business.

And an excellent first Q&A:

How do prediction markets differ from other types of forecasting models or decision tools used in business today?

Traditionally, all these prediction models are algorithms that take historical patterns that say this is what happened in the past, and we’re going to extrapolate that this pattern will continue in the future. That’s how forecasting systems have worked forever. And they’re very successful when you have a historical pattern.

What they can’t do is detect early-warning indicators that, while this has always happened in the past, something’s changed. So that’s the power of what we have, the ability to be your eyes and ears on the ground  every minute, minute by minute. So as the leader of a company, I know I’ve got the facts as they stand today as I’m trying to make a decision.

Other good questions:

• What is the user experience like for market participants?
• What incentives do companies use to encourage participation and correct answers?
• Do you have any good examples of how a prediction market has helped one of your customers?

For Linda’s answers, go read the whole interview. But we’ll leave you with her thoughts on our local impact:

We’ve got to get more companies like this in Nashville. This is a traditional California company. The California [venture capitalists] understand these companies and put money behind them. The California companies network the executives and help each other get into other [opportunities]. We don’t yet have that here.

I was chair of the Nashville Technology Council, and I’m on the Nashville Entrepreneurship board. I’m trying to get us to become a hub of some sort as it relates to new and exciting innovative social media and enterprise 2.0 technology. This is the next wave, and we ought to have these companies in Nashville.

It’s fun to be at an exciting technology company with a great CEO! Especially fun because we have great customers. If you’d like to become a great customer, contact us.

Foresight, our enterprise prediction market platform, is a product under constant and steady development, based in large part on customer input and feedback. Between major releases, we frequently provide feature releases to get new developments and requests in the hands of our customers as soon as possible. We’re pleased to announce our June 2010 release of Foresight.

Our goals with this release are:

• continuing to make the user experience flexible to specific business situations and needs, as well as user preferences
• improving management analytics reports by turning data into information for business leadership

And here’s what’s new:

User Interface Updates

New Confidence Interface — For both point and stock metaphor markets, participants will have a new way to increase or decrease confidence in any question or stock, streamlined from the previous process. The entire participant interaction may now be done via a bidirectional slider that allows users to increase or decrease confidence and see the resulting consensus. The interface also dynamically provides feedback to the user on the impact of their vote in addition to their maximum payout or value potential assuming they are moving the consensus in the correct direction.

The Advanced option allows participants to enter a number of units/points directly. For stock metaphor markets, this is also where limit orders may be placed. Once the answer is submitted, the participant has the opportunity to enter a private comment regarding their trade.

Security Enhancements — System security has been enhanced with additional encryptions. As a result, users will no longer be able to retrieve their forgotten password, but rather will be asked to ‘reset’ their password.

Decision Dashboards — As part of additional reporting and analytics capability enhancements in the administrator application, specific users may be granted access to enterprise dashboards. The dashboards provide a snapshot view of the market’s activity, trends, associated business value, and comments.

Administrator Updates

Custom Fields — Administrators may now create and manage custom fields of information for traders, stocks and categories. These custom fields may store additional information beyond what is standard in the application. For example, a ‘Department’ field might be created to track which department the trader belongs to in the organization. The management of custom fields is located under the ‘Settings’ area of the admin application.

The addition of custom fields is important because now business leaders can run a range of reports on aggregated bits of business intelligence.

Reporting enhancements — Additional reports have been added to the reporting section in the admin application. To accommodate the additional reports, the reporting navigation has also been modified. The additional reports include the ability to view the data along several dimensions, including any custom fields that have been defined in the market.

This release is now generally available with the Foresight platform and will be deployed to existing customer markets within 30 days.

This year’s Enterprise 2.0 conference was full of new product announcements and represented continued evolution in the value of Enterprise 2.0 solutions to businesses. The most striking realization for us was the increasing focus on Enterprise 2.0 solutions from players of all sizes, including companies as large as Cisco and CSC.

For instance, Cisco used the conference to announce an Enterprise 2.0 solution called Quad and shared that the net benefits of Cisco’s own internal use of Web 2.0 collaboration solutions were more than $1B in FY09. Cisco Quad leverages existing technologies such as Unified Communications and Telepresence and expands with business focused flip video and social software. To us, this seems like it is collaboration from the application down through the architecture.

Other items of interest:

• Andrew McAfee discussed some concepts from his book, Enterprise 2.0, and revealed that Gartner predicts that as of 2010 social software is an enterprise reality. This, of course, is backed up by McKinsey survey results on Enterprise 2.0.
• nGenera announced a human-centered enterprise collaboration solution, called Spaces, designed in collaboration with IDEO. Spaces includes a user configurable interface and plug-in architecture, allowing data access via interactive mini applications. This strikes us as collaboration from the middleware/web services layer out.

We’re already wondering what features Enteprise 3.0 will have. If you’d like to set up a market to test your ideas on that front, let us know.