Thesis on the effectiveness of Prediction Markets as a forecasting tool 

by Kai Trepte and Rajaram Narayanaswamy
Graduate students in the Engineering Systems Division at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Graduate students in the Engineering Systems Division at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology studied 20 Prediction Markets at General Mills, powered by Consensus Point, in order to determine the accuracy of Prediction Markets as a forecasting tool in a corporate setting.  According to the study, “Our findings clearly show that Prediction Markets are capable of developing very accurate forecasts, effectively aggregate information from multiple participants and may be able to provide improvement for long-range forecasting.”

Click here to read the full thesis.

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