Monday, February 15th, 2010
CFO.com: Motorola Prediction Market Yields up to 10x Value

We don’t see a lot of need for prefatory material here.

He [Rami Levy, a technologist with the Motorola's mobile devices business] says the combined revenue from product-based ideas and cost savings from internal innovations is “conservatively” 5 to 10 times TIX administration costs, which largely involve two to three dedicated employees. The cost to purchase and implement prediction-market software — called Foresight Server, from Consensus Point — was “under $100,000,” he says.

CFO.com has an extensive write-up of the customer success we’ve had with Motorola, and we are impressed with Mr. Levy’s ability to concisely identify the bottom line value that our Foresight prediction markets platform is capable of delivering to the enterprise.

Further, the article is an elegant case study of the sort of business scenario that is a perfect opportunity for the use of prediction markets, the path to implementation, and the ultimate value.

What we like best about the article, in fact, and consider a true success for Motorola’s implementation of our solution, is that the value goes beyond raw consideration of the bottom line:

But additional, softer benefits were key goals for the program, too. These have been realized through collaboration forums that allow employees to see and comment on others’ ideas, which are thus improved by the crowd’s input. The forums facilitate people from disparate regions and company organizations forming relationships, working together on ideas, and avoiding duplication of effort, Levy says. Motorola actually introduced the forums in 2005 along with the voting mechanism, but participation spiked after TIX was introduced and continues to rise.

The bottom line, says Levy: “TIX has proved to be an excellent conduit for enabling collaborative innovation and creating new value for Motorola in a fun and enjoyable way that encourages participation at a minimal cost.”

When was the last time you implemented something for the enterprise that not only created cost-effective value but was also fun?

You can read the full CFO.com article here, and you can contact us about Foresight here. We predict customer success if you do.

Tuesday, May 19th, 2009
How Motorola Uses Prediction Markets to Choose Innovations

Employees use prediction markets to vote up product ideas and productivity improvements they think should be selected for development

April 27, 2009 — CIO.com — The project: Deploy a prediction market to aggregate new business ideas suggested by Motorola employees and assess their viability. A prediction market is a system for forecasting the outcome of projects or events based on how willing individuals are to buy “stock” in them. Users buy shares to vote items up. Each item is evaluated based on how much it is “worth”: the higher the value, the more popular the idea.

The business case: Motorola sought to allow any employee the opportunity to propose ideas for new products, upgrades to current products, productivity improvements or cycle-time reductions, says Rami Levy, distinguished member of Motorola’s technical staff and a member of its open-source technology team, which manages the prediction markets for the company. In 2003, Motorola had built a system to collect ideas, called ThinkTank. But when thousands of suggestions poured in, the teams that were supposed to weed through them were overwhelmed.

Using prediction market technology, Motorola could engage employees in the selection process by letting them vote for the ideas they thought had the best business potential. The most popular ideas could then be selected for further study and eventually be developed.

First steps: Levy and his team worked with a variety of director-level managers, including senior VPs, to secure buy-in for the project. “ThinkTank was already being sponsored by an SVP,” he says, but they needed support from others who would have to produce the business-case and user scenarios for new product ideas. That sponsorship was crucial to obtaining cross-organizational participation and funding for the tool.

Once Levy’s team secured management support, they integrated prediction software from Consensus Point (called ThinkTank Idea eXchange, or TIX, internally), with its existing ThinkTank application. In a six-month pilot during 2007, they experimented with market parameters, such as how long to keep ideas in play and how to finance participants’ purchases.

Today, employees submit ideas to ThinkTank, where anyone within Motorola can vote on them. Ideas that receive at least five votes are eligible for TIX, where each idea is initially valued at $10 per share. Anyone who wants to participate gets $100,000 to start with to buy the stock of the ideas they like best. As employees buy or sell shares, the value of the idea rises—or not. After 30 days, an idea review team determines which of the top-valued ideas to pursue. Winners are judged based on their stock performance, and participants who hold stock in winning ideas get a bonus.

It typically takes 18 months to develop a product at Motorola, so the first product ideas vetted through TIX are expected to come to market this year, Levy says.

What to watch out for: Market parameters that work in one circumstance won’t necessarily work in another, says Levy. You have to fine-tune your system to your environment. Motorola decided to limit an idea to a month in TIX to ensure new ideas were always entering the market. Meanwhile, even though employees find participating fun, you need to get them involved and keep them engaged. Levy’s team ran ads on the company’s intranet, conducted user satisfaction surveys and incorporated social media into the system. “Socialize the experience,” he recommends, “by integrating user comments, tagging, recommendations and links to other information.”

By Kristin Burnham © 2008 CXO Media Inc.

 
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