Abstract: Developing obtainable, clear and measurable work expectations early in the project planning process is an important part of successful project management. Converting these expectations into project milestones and communicating openly about progress toward them is crucial to every project’s success. Optimistic estimation biases of IT workers, poor estimating techniques and group politics can hinder communication and decrease the chances of success. A prediction market is a tool that might help project managers overcome these obstacles.

Prediction markets are online marketplaces that adapt many of the same structures found in stock markets to aggregate information about the probability of future events. These markets have produced reliable estimates in a variety of settings, including corporate environments. This presentation will describe the design, implementation and evaluation of a prediction market to support the communication needs of an IT project manager overseeing the implementation of a software system in a distributed team environment.

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